The Israeli website Walla claimed that there are estimates indicating Hezbollah’s intelligence activity at the border with Syria to launch attacks, apparently in coordination with Iran as part of Iran’s possible response to the Damascus attack. The same source also pointed out that Hezbollah has moved elements to the border with Syria and is using sites belonging to the Syrian army.
It added that Hezbollah’s activity on the border with Syria is not known whether it is with the knowledge of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad or not.
The situation in Lebanon is causing concern for US officials and the current US administration, as the situation on the Lebanese-Israeli border has been escalating for six months, and the internal situation is approaching governmental paralysis, also prone to explosion, and the assassination of a senior official in the Lebanese Forces party once again proves the extent of lawlessness in Lebanon and the division among the parties.
Americans still prioritize a ceasefire at the Lebanese-Israeli border, and Washington appears to be at odds with both Hezbollah and Israel.
Hezbollah does not want a ceasefire as long as battles continue in Gaza, and if a ceasefire occurs, it specifically wants the borders with Israel to be defined, while Israel wants to keep Hezbollah away from its borders and ensure that it will not be able to launch cross-border operations, occupy villages and settlements, and kidnap or kill Israeli citizens, as Hamas did on October 7.
The principle of de-escalation controls the US position, and the United States may have succeeded in controlling the Israeli decision several months ago when it assured the government of Benjamin Netanyahu that attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon was not a good idea, and the efforts made by presidential envoy Amos Hochstein and his visits to Lebanon and Israel, and his meetings in Washington and elsewhere seem to be a serious attempt by the Americans to reach a solution without going to war.
US Presidential File
Interestingly, preventing escalation between Israel and Hezbollah is a file that US President Joe Biden directly deals with through Amos Hochstein, and the past months and weeks have demonstrated the extent of American presidential interest through a “nearly complete separation” from other wings of the US administration in these efforts, with the efforts being concentrated in the hands of the presidential envoy Amos Hochstein.
Some close to the US President and his envoy confirm this when speaking to “Al Arabiya” and “Al Hadath,” but they want to emphasize that the administration works as a team under the US President, and while the State Department’s Middle East team does not deal with the details of the conversations, they confirm that Secretary of State Antony Blinken works closely within the president’s team, and any possible achievements will be the president’s and his team’s.
Slow Progress
“Al Arabiya” and “Al Hadath” sources also confirm that the Americans have resolved differences with the French on the issue of South Lebanon and what is required is for the two directly concerned parties to agree on the Americans’ demands.
Edward Gabriel, president of the Task Force for Lebanon, emphasized in a statement to “Al Arabiya” and “Al Hadath” that the diplomatic solution will require following up on shuttle diplomacy “on one hand, to clarify to Hezbollah, through Lebanese officials, that Israel will not stop offensive military action unless it receives guarantees through a demilitarized zone that ensures protection for its citizens.”
The former ambassador and president of the Task Force for Lebanon adds that “Hochstein should advise Israel that escalation in Lebanon is a red line and will not be accepted by the Biden administration.”
Edward Gabriel details Hochstein’s American proposal saying that “the parties must agree on Hochstein’s proposal to stop hostilities, establish a demilitarized zone at the border, increase aid to the Lebanese army to help it deploy at the border, continue discussions on border demarcation, and ensure American aid for sustainable infrastructure and economic growth in the south,” considering these successive steps can be a basis for implementing UN Resolution 1701.
Package or Path
The first challenge in this American proposal might be seeing it as a single package or as a roadmap, and the current impression in Washington is that the Americans will accept whatever they can get, and friends of Amos Hochstein repeat his motto, saying: “I take what I can get.”
The dangerous part of all this is that Americans are applying pressure but have not been able to impose a fait accompli on both parties, even as both sides seem insistent on continuing their military and political plans regardless of the American stance.
Quintet Activity
This also applies to American efforts in the area of the US presidential elections, as Americans repeat their statement that Lebanese should elect a president and form a government, but they have not put their diplomacy and weight in a position that allows them to impose a fait accompli.
Ethan Goldrich, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Lebanon and Syria, visited Lebanon, and a State Department spokesperson told Al Arabiya and Al Hadath, “He reiterated the importance of electing a president to help the country emerge from regional and internal crises.”
Many attach importance to the return of the quintet at the ambassadors’ level to meeting and activity after the ambassadors returned from their vacations and the end of Eid al-Fitr celebrations, and a spokesperson for the US State Department told “Al Arabiya” and “Al Hadath” that they would do so, saying, “The quintet continues to coordinate with partners to push Lebanese officials to elect a president, form a government, and implement necessary economic reforms, foremost among them what is requested by the IMF program.”
Former Ambassador and President of the Task Force for Lebanon, Edward Gabriel, stated in a comment to Al Arabiya and Al Hadath that he was informed that the quintet has a joint strategy to help the parties reach a consensual presidential candidate. He added whether “they will take the initiative to conduct shuttle rounds between the parties to bridge ideas and reach an understanding on the most acceptable candidate names.”
No party seems in a hurry to reach a solution, and perhaps the divergence among international parties and among Lebanese parties has led to a loss of any momentum, but an explosion of the situation will force everyone to act despite themselves.