The head of NATO’s Military Committee, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, stated that there are no indications that Russia plans to invade any NATO member state.
Reported by the “Baltic Times,” Admiral Bauer remarked, “There are no indications that Russia is planning to attack any NATO member country. I do not see any direct threat.” Bauer emphasized that Russia has ambitions beyond Ukraine, adding, “We know this, and the alliance must be generally prepared.” He also stressed that Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, which calls for collective defense, can only be invoked in the event of a direct attack on a NATO member state.
Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin described claims of a potential Russian attack on Poland or the Baltic states as utter nonsense.
The recent tensions between NATO and Russia have been significantly influenced by Russia’s concerns over NATO’s expansion towards its borders, particularly with the inclusion of countries that were part of the former Warsaw Pact and ex-Soviet republics. The admission of these states into NATO in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and the subsequent statement of intent to include Georgia and Ukraine, has been a major point of contention for Russia. The Kremlin has viewed the potential membership of Ukraine in NATO as a red line, emphasizing the strong historic ties and strategic importance of Ukraine to Russia. Despite NATO’s stance of not announcing a formal membership plan for Ukraine and Georgia during the 2008 Bucharest Summit, the alliance affirmed that these countries would become members of NATO, further exacerbating tensions.
In response to these growing tensions, Russia issued a list of demands in December 2021, which included a legally binding agreement to halt further NATO expansion eastwards, particularly preventing Ukraine’s admission, and a withdrawal of NATO troops from Eastern European states. These demands were categorically rejected by the US and NATO, although there was openness to negotiate on other points such as military exercises and missile placements in the region. Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, including multiple rounds of negotiations and formal responses to Russia’s demands, the situation remains highly fluid and uncertain. The US and NATO have emphasized defense and deterrence efforts alongside diplomacy, with troop mobilizations and military aid to reinforce Eastern European NATO states and Ukraine, despite Russia’s characterization of these actions as provocations.