Before the Rapid Support Forces could finalize their control over all parts of Sennar State, Ahmed El-Madani, governor of the neighboring Blue Nile Province, announced a daily 12-hour curfew in the province. This move signifies that the Rapid Support Forces’ dominance in Sennar State poses a significant threat to the southeastern and central regions of Sudan, potentially isolating them from the eastern part of the country.
The Rapid Support Forces officially declared their control over Singa city, the capital and administrative/military center of Sennar State, encompassing crucial security and executive institutions such as the governor’s offices, police headquarters, and intelligence services.
Singa was captured amidst a rapid military deployment towards a ground confrontation between Sudanese army forces and the Rapid Support Forces, following the latter’s seizure of the strategic Mount Moya area. This area serves as a critical juncture for the main road networks linking Sennar, Jazeera, and White Nile states.
The advance of the Rapid Support Forces towards Sennar State has been ongoing for over 10 months, following their previous control over Jazeera State. This effort led to their takeover of the Mount Moya area, prompting further advancement towards Singa city and consideration of controlling other vital parts of the state.
Sennar State holds significant geographic importance as it lies in the southeastern part of Sudan, bordering states like Gedaref, Jazeera, and White Nile, serving as a gateway to Blue Nile State. It acts as a pivotal connection point between central and eastern Sudan, making its control highly strategic.
Military expert Fath Al-Rahman Mohiuddin highlighted that Sennar State’s importance lies in its border positioning with countries like Ethiopia and South Sudan, where control could potentially open supply lines for forces. He emphasized that the Rapid Support Forces’ complete control over the state represents a major strategic shift.
Mohiuddin clarified, “The forces entering Singa city were not enough to occupy it, but aimed to spread panic among citizens and increase the number of displaced persons.” He pointed out that such actions could serve the agenda of declaring a famine in Sudan, allowing for international intervention.
Military strategist Omar Arbab noted that the Rapid Support Forces’ strategy focuses on isolating and besieging forces in waves, enabling them to potentially attack multiple areas simultaneously. He emphasized that controlling Mount Moya has enabled them to launch assaults on Singa, Sennar, Rabak, and Kosti, illustrating their tactic of isolating opposing forces.
With the Rapid Support Forces’ control over Mount Moya, attacks on Singa, Sennar, Rabak, and Kosti have become feasible. Their capture of Singa city also facilitates attacks on Gedaref, Blue Nile, and White Nile states, highlighting their strategy to isolate opposing forces and turn the situation to their advantage.
Ayoub Nahar, a member of the advisory board for the Rapid Support Forces, stated, “The control over Singa city is a gateway to Blue Nile State,” disrupting the army’s plans to attack our forces in Mount Moya.”
Nahar added, “The control over Sennar State is a prelude to what comes next, connecting White Nile and Blue Nile states with eastern Sudan, following the Rapid Support Forces’ control over the Port Sudan-Wad Medani road, becoming the only route linking central to eastern Sudan.”
He concluded, “Our control over Sennar State will significantly alter the balance of power in our favor, facilitating our control over White Nile and Blue Nile states.”
Experts stress the urgency for the army to reclaim its positions in Sennar State to maintain supply lines from eastern to central and western Sudan. Failure to do so risks losing central Sudan, choking off eastern Sudan, and transforming the entire east into a defensive position amid the Rapid Support Forces’ expansion.
As the autumn season approaches its peak, controlling governing states becomes crucial for both parties due to the ruggedness of land routes and their disruption by rains, necessitating the use of asphalt roads for movement between eastern and central Sudan.
The displacement of Sennar State residents would multiply the numbers of displaced and fleeing war victims, hastening the humanitarian catastrophe.